#160: “Break Bad”

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Probably the greatest character in the greatest TV show ever made is Walter White of AMC’s hit series ‘Breaking Bad’. An anti-hero in the Shakespearian mould, the thing about him that fascinates us is the fact that his villainy lay dormant inside him until the day he was diagnosed with lung cancer. This ultimate memento mori prompted a fundamental change in him; revealing a true self that was repressed through years of socialization and fear, an emboldened self that defied authority and took risks, a malignant Oedipal self that craved mastery and respect no matter what the cost.

Walt’s transformation from sheep to lion takes place in the very first episode and, for four subsequent seasons, we have watched that lion manipulate everyone around him, take reckless chances and, so far, beat his competition. But what does this all have to do with poker? Tournament poker is about getting all the chips. Sure, it’s about surviving, laddering and making good decisions but ultimately it’s about being the last man standing. It’s about winning but as all poker players know, the vast majority of the time, we don’t win. So, faced with this miserable reality, how do we proceed? In my experience, most players respond with fear; fear that usually manifests itself in one of two ways.

Some players are so petrified of busting that they turn down too many ‘too good to refuse’ +EV opportunities. This policy guarantees their survival in the tournament but it badly hurts their chance of progressing in it. Waiting around for big hands only is the equivalent of taking that safe, salaried, pensioned, middle-income job, investing your money in low yield bonds, buying a Volvo, deferring pain and settling for a life of humdrum mediocrity.

Other players are so petrified of busting that they desperately try to control that outcome. Deep down, they know that their demise is inevitable so instead of passively accepting that, they actively ‘own’ the event by inducing it, by taking unnecessary risks, by chancing that high-wire bluff and by going to war at every available opportunity. Having no patience in this way is the equivalent of haphazardly chasing your dreams, going to interviews for jobs for which you aren’t qualified, looking for get-rich quick schemes, buying a motorbike, ripping off your plasters and grasping for a life beyond your reach.

My advice to group one is be more like Walter White and stop being a pussy. He knows he’s going to die so he wants to achieve something in the interim. You’re probably going to bust so stop investing all your energy into avoiding that miserable moment and start re-directing that effort into accumulating. Speculate with a wider range. Bluff a bit. Be positive. You’ll still bust most of the time but at least you’ll die on your sword having given yourself a chance.

My advice to group two is be more like Walter White and stop being an idiot. He understands that his brain is his biggest asset. He understands that if he is going to achieve his ultimate goal, he has to be strategic. Nobody talks about the soldier who ran maniacally into enemy fire. Nobody thinks he was brave. Everybody thinks he was a moron. So tighten up. You cannot beat a good player with 84o out of position in the long run so cut that shit out. Be patient. Be selective. You’ll still bust most of the time but at least when you do, you can be happy that you didn’t bring about your own downfall.

Walter White is ultimately a tragic figure. He is a modern-day Macbeth and thus, following the Shakespearian coda, he must die at the end of this, the final season. He has cancer but he also ‘is’ cancer. Devious, manipulative and dishonest, he has wreaked havoc and piled misery onto his family and everyone around him. These qualities would make him a contemptible character in the real world but they do make him an excellent role model for poker players who need to ‘break bad’ if they are going to be successful. We lie, steal and con for a living but like Walter White, the best of us heed the sage words of Lady Macbeth:

‘Look like the innocent flower/But be the serpent under it’