#236: “Trump Cards”

Obviously Trump is horrendous and his recent comments are possibly his worst yet. But it strikes me that most pundits are missing the point. Trump ultimately needs to ostracise himself from the Republican Party and statements about banning Muslims from entering the country, an action that goes against everything for which America supposedly stands, achieves that objective. It also ignites a disturbing element within the Republican caucus whose fanatical support he ultimately requires.

Trump got out-manoeuvred at one of the early debates when he was asked whether he would run on his own should he fail to get the nomination. His failure to answer that question in the negative hurt his momentum momentarily. He needed (and still needs) the main stage for as long as possible to execute his masterplan and this issue gave his opponents a stick with which to beat him and created an issue which threatened to derail his campaign. He understood that a lengthy primary campaign and the accompanying media frenzy easily trumps (pardon the pun) a 1996 Ross Perot-style run which might peter out before it caught fire. So, in the days that followed, he backtracked, insisting that he wouldn’t consider running on his own ‘so long as the party gave him a fair shake’.

So, with his recent statements, his true goal in all of this becomes even more apparent; leverage. A third-party campaign by him would be the ultimate spoiler for the Republican Party because the 3-5% of the country who would vote for him would mostly come out of their share, virtually guaranteeing Clinton (or preferably Sanders) the election. Ergo, he has leverage. How he wants to use his leverage I do not know. Perhaps he wants some laws passed that would aid his real estate business. Perhaps he wants to be ambassador to Monaco. Perhaps he has been a Clinton mole all along. Whatever it is, he will have the Republican Party over a barrel and he will probably get what he wants.

Leverage is an important concept in poker. It’s important in the context of a single hand but it is also important in the context of ‘the game’. For over a decade, poker players have had some leverage. In an industry that was booming, sites clambered for business, marketed to an ever-growing demographic under the gambling/gaming umbrella, often sweetening the pot in the form of overlays and promotions. The owners of the sites were as aspirational as the mid-stakes players who dreamt of playing the nosebleeds. Their objectives were notoriety and a satisfied customer base and their success was measured in new sign-ups and market share.

That is no longer the case. Amaya are Unilever, a virtual monopoly which we, the players, via our loyalty to Pokerstars are largely responsible for creating. We have surrendered them the leverage and it is no longer in their interests that their customers be satisfied. We have been Unileveraged. Remember that speech Stringer Bell gave to his corner boys in the photocopy-shop, explaining that they were no longer selling an inelastic product. Well poker is going the other way – it used to be elastic and soon it won’t be. There might be the illusion of choice, just like when you buy laundry detergent, but you’ll always be shooting Prop Joe’s package.

Pokerstars have us over a barrel and they are using their leverage to crush the pro, turn poker into just another gambling game and in doing so, putting the quintessential selling point of poker in jeopardy. I wouldn’t be surprised if their long term objective was to kill the game while herding that player pool into other forms of gambling that are more profitable for them. Note the less than subtle switch of focus being sold to the players in the press releases of Pokerstars and interviews of Pokerstars employees. All you hear now is how the professional player is picking on the recreational player as if the game wasn’t always about risking money to win money, as if the model of the entire gambling industry wasn’t individuals pitting their wits and judgement against the line set by the house. That, of course, is if the house even gives you the chance to beat their lines and doesn’t just construct a game with unbeatable odds.

Much like it’s important to see beyond Trump’s oafish comments and recognise his underlying objectives, it’s vital to see beyond Pokerstars’ hyperbolic re-framing of the poker conversation. Because what they say is insulting to the thousands of people who have demonstrated diligence, discipline and bravery to make a living in a brutally tough game. And frankly, it’s insulting to the recreational players to victimise them as if the vast majority of them weren’t wagering money they could afford to lose. 6% of the players more or less breaking even and 2% of the players winning 15% of the money is not an unreasonable slice of the pie for us to eat, seeing as we, the players, put in 100% of the ingredients. Under the new model being implemented by Pokerstars, it will be 7-8% of the players breaking even and 0.5% of the players winning 5% of the money. Thousands of players will be leveraged out of their jobs and with so little of what goes in being paid out, I fear that poker will lose its attraction and contract further.

Amaya is not the caretaker of the game, loyal to the people who play it. It is a publicly traded company, loyal to its shareholders. Just like Donald Trump is not the caretaker of a country, loyal to the people who would vote for him. He is a property tycoon and media mogul, loyal to TV ratings and his own bottom line.