#171: “The Anatomy of The Flip-Flop”

Mitt Romney is a bit like those hyper-aggressive poker players who attempt to run over their inexperienced table-mates by emptying the clip irregardless of the fact that their story makes no sense.

Consider the following poker hand: The villain makes a standard open from the Hijack playing 200bbs. You have JJ in the Big Blind raise it up, 3x-ing his open. He 4-bets, 2.5x-ing your 3bet. You choose to call. The flop comes 5-6-7 rainbow. You check and he bets 30% of the pot. You call. The turn comes a black King. Again, you check and he bets 30% of the pot. You scratch your head before calling. The river comes a red 4. You check and the villain goes all-in for 2x the pot. What do you do?

In 1992, Mitt Romney was a registered Independent but voted for a Democrat in the Presidential primaries. However, the following year, he changed his affiliation to Republican when there was an opening to run against the incumbent US Senator, Ted Kennedy. He lost narrowly but during that campaign he went out on a limb, stating “I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country.” Indeed he was a different breed of Republican and nine years later, he would prove that, becoming Governor of the traditionally blue state of Massachusetts. During that campaign, Romney branded himself as a political outsider, stating time and time again that he would “preserve and protect a woman’s right to choose” and that his position was “unequivocal”. He played down his party affiliation, saying he was “not a partisan Republican” but rather a “moderate” with “progressive” views.  He proved that in February 2004 when he backed a state constitutional amendment that would allow civil unions for same-sex couples in Massachusetts.

However, in June 2005, Romney did a number of political U-turns. He abandoned his support for the civil union amendment and endorsed an opposing ballot initiative led by the Coalition for Marriage and Family (an alliance of socially conservative organisations). He also switched sides on the abortion issue, becoming a pro-life advocate (opposition to Roe vs Wade) and came out against embryonic stem cell research, having previously supported it. However, despite these obvious moves towards more traditional Republican stances on social matters, the signature achievement of his term in office would still be a progressive shift on the issue of healthcare. In April 2006, influenced by the efforts of Hillary Clinton and his predecessor Ted Kennedy, Romney signed the Massachusetts Health Reform Law which required nearly all Massachusetts residents to buy health insurance coverage or face escalating tax penalties, such as the loss of their personal income tax exemption. ‘Romneycare’ as it was known was hugely popular and, as a piece of legislation would become the model for Obamacare, a reform that he now rallies vehemently against.

In 2007, Romney ran in the Republican primaries, launching himself as a right-leaning member of his party. This appeared inconsistent to the eventual Nominee John McCain who questioned his credibility and integrity, branding him a flip-flopper. In 2011, Romney again sought the Republican nomination but against the backdrop of the tea-party movement and a staunchly conservative GOP, his only way to win was to appeal to a fervently right-wing base. Now, in order to win the election itself, he must shuffle back to the centre to win the Independents while at the same time, not doing anything to overtly piss off the Republican base. In the first debate, he was very successful at achieving this balance (while simultaneously discombobulating Obama) but despite the strong showing and favourable poll boost, it begged two serious questions: What the fuck does Mitt Romney actually believe? Should the US electorate believe him now?

I tend to call when a story makes a little sense as that of Mitt Romney. Much like the above poker hand, I tend to think that the guy is bluffing rather than believe that he has backed into something big, having lied on every previous street. I tend to assume that the villain is telling me what he thinks I need to hear so that he can successfully steal my money.

… And given how tirelessly and consistently Mitt Romney has worked to protect the interests of millionaires and billionaires, Corporations and Special Interest Groups, I tend to believe that the latter statement especially applies.